>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY," HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

UNDER MOUNTING PRESSURE, TRUMP CASTS AROUND FOR A COALITION OF NAVAL FORCES TO JOIN HIS WAR ON IRAN AND KEEP OIL FLOWING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, NO TAKERS SO FAR.

THEN I ASK LEADING GLOBAL ECONOMIST WHAT IS AT STAKE AMID THE BIGGEST OIL DISRUPTION IN HISTORY.

PLUS A HAIL MARY PASS TO MAKE UP FOR PRICES, TO EASE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.

WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE UKRAINE UNDER THE FIFTH YEAR OF RUSSIA'S ALL-OUT WAR.

>> NO MATTER IF YOU GO THROUGH THE PROPER CHANNELS, IT'S CONTROVERSIAL.

>> TRUMP'S PARDONS, TALKING TO MARTIN ABOUT WHAT HE CALLS A GROWING PARDON INDUSTRY AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

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> >> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

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COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

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THANK YOU.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

AS IRAN UPS ITS THREATS TO AMERICAN INTERESTS IN THE REGION, A GROWING ENERGY CRISIS IS SENDING OIL PRICES SOARING AROUND THE WORLD.

TANKER TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS MOSTLY STOPPED SINCE THE U. S. AND ISRAEL LAUNCHED THEIR WAR ON IRAN TWO WEEKS AGO.

IT USUALLY CARRIES AROUND 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL SUPPLY.

BUT TEHRAN IS ONLY ALLOWING A HANDFUL OF VESSELS THROUGH ON QUOTE SPECIAL CONDITIONS.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN CALLING ON CHINA AND U. S. ALLIES TO ASSIST, AND WARNING NATO WILL RECEIVER IF IT FAILS.

SO FAR NO ONE HAS ANSWERED THE PRESSURE.

THE GERMAN MINISTER SAID THIS IS NOT OUR WAR.

AND KEIR STARMER SAID HE'S WORKING WITH ALLIES BUT REFUSES TO GET INVOLVED MILITARILY.

HE BRUSHED ASIDE THOSE WHO CALLED FOR HIM TO RUSH TO WAR WITHOUT FULLY KNOWING THE MISSION OR EXIT STRATEGY.

>> OUR DECISION SHOULD BE BASED ON A CALM, LEVEL- HEADED ASSESSMENT OF THE BRITISH NATIONAL INTEREST.

IF WE ARE TO SEND OUR SERVICEMEN AND WOMEN INTO HARM'S WAY, THE VERY LEAST THEY DESERVE IS TO KNOW THEY DO SO ON A LEGAL BASIS AND WITH A PROPER, THOUGHT-THROUGH PLAN.

NOW, THERE ARE OTHERS WHO WOULD HAVE MADE A DIFFERENT DECISION TWO WEEKS AGO, THEY WOULD HAVE RUSHED THE UK HEADLONG INTO THIS WAR WITHOUT THE FULL PICTURE OF WHAT THEY'RE SENDING OUR FORCES INTO.

AND WITHOUT A PLAN TO GET US OUT.

THAT IS NOT LEADING, IT'S FOLLOWING.

MY LEADERSHIP IS ABOUT STANDING FIRM FOR THE BRITISH INTEREST.

NO MATTER THE PRESSURE.

>> THAT'S CLEAR ENOUGH.

TO ASSESS THE NATO RESPONSE AND THE PROSPECTS OF A MILITARY SOLUTION TO UNBLOCKING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, FORMER DEPUTY SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER IN EUROPE RICHARD SHERIFF JOINS ME.

WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> CAN I START BY ASKING YOU --YOU'VE BEEN SENT TO WAR AND WAR GAMES AND BEEN DEPUTY AT NATO.

DO YOU BELIEVE THE PRIME MINISTER IS CORRECT IN THE WAY HE LAYS OUT BASIS FOR BRITISH INVOLVEMENT.

AND WHAT GERMANY IS SAYING, THIS IS NOT OUR WAR, WE DIDN'T START IT.

>> I THINK THE PRIME MINISTER IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT TO SAY WE GOT TO THINK THIS THROUGH VERY, VERY CAREFULLY.

OF COURSE BRITAIN, GERMANY AND ALL OTHER EUROPEAN AND WESTERN ALLIES ARE CAUGHT WITH A SERIOUS DILEMMA.

IT'S IN OUR INTEREST TO SEE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPENED UP, BUT IT'S ABSOLUTELY NOT IN OUR INTEREST TO GIVE PRESIDENT TRUMP A BLANK CHECK FOR A MAJOR MILITARY OPERATION TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT PUTS US ABSOLUTELY ON THE SIDE OF AMERICA.

AND AS AND WHEN TRUMP WALKS AWAY FROM THIS AS HE SURELY WILL, THAT WILL LEAVE THOSE WHO SOLVE WITH HIM OWNING THE PROBLEM THAT HE'S LEFT BEHIND.

>> SO DO YOU THINK --WHAT DO YOU THINK OF HIM SAYING QUOTE, YOU KNOW, NATO WILL HAVE A VERY BAD FUTURE IF IT DOESN'T COME TO THE RESCUE --DO YOU THINK HE'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO WHAT WE UNDERSTAND HE'S DOING, TRYING TO ASSEMBLE A COALITION OF COUNTRIES TO OPEN THE STRAIT PROPERLY?

>> I TURN THE QUESTION BACK TO TRUMP.

REALITY IS, EVER SINCE HE WAS INAUGURATED, NATO HAS BEEN HELD BELOW THE WATER LINE FROM AMERICA'S CLEAR STATEMENT FROM VANCE AND HEGSETH THAT AMERICA WOULD NOT UNDERPIN EUROPEAN SECURITY.

REINFORCED BY TRUMP'S ACTIONS IN JANUARY WHEN HE THREATENED THE TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF A NATO ALLY.

SO TRUST IN AMERICA IN THE ALLIANCE HAS BEEN BROKEN.

YOU HAVE TO THINK OF THE ALLIANCE AS A FAMILY OF MEMBER STATES.

TRUST UNDERPINS ALL OF IT, AND WHEN IT'S BROKEN, IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT TO REBUILD.

I'M NOT SURPRISED THERE'S A REAL RELUCTANCE TO DANCE TO TRUMP'S TUNE.

DON'T FORGET OF COURSE THIS IS A WAR HE STARTED, NOT AN ALLIANCE WAR.

ALTHOUGH ALL OUR INTERESTS ARE NOW INVOLVED AS A RESULT OF HIS ACTIONS.

>> CAN I ASK YOU A QUICK CLARIFICATION AND DEFINITION OF WHAT NATO IS.

THIS WOULD BE OFFENSIVE ACTIONS BY NATO IF IT WAS CALLED IN.

DOES THIS FIT A NATO MISSION?

SAY OTHER PARTNERS WERE WILLING TO DO IT.

OR IS NATO PURELY DEFENSIVE?

>> NATO IS --EXISTS TO DEFEND THE TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF NATO'S LAND BORDERS, ITS AIRSPACE AND IT'S SEA LINES OF COMMUNICATIONS.

IT'S VERY EASY -- IT IS A FACT THAT NATO HAS SEA LINE OF COMMUNICATION THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BEING THREATENED.

SO ANY NATO OPERATION TO PROTECT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OR OPEN IT UP I THINK WOULD BE A DEFENSIVE OPERATION.

TO PROTECT NATO'S INTERESTS WHICH ARE BEING THREATENED.

>> OKAY.

NOW HOW WOULD YOU --I KNOW YOU'VE HAD THIS DEPUTY HAT ON, BEEN IN CHARGE OF LAND FORCES.

HOW WOULD YOU TELL US HOW ONE COULD TODAY QUOTE, UNQUOTE, OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

HOW DOES ONE DO IT WITH IRAN SENDING MISSILES, DRONES, OTHER SUCH THINGS.

APPARENTLY 16 SHIPS AND TANKERS HAVE BEEN ATTACKED SINCE THURSDAY.

THERE'S AN ONGOING RETALIATION BY IRAN AND IT'S SAID IT WOULD USE THIS IF ATTACKED BECAUSE THIS IS ITS ONLY LEVERAGE IN AN ASYMMETRICAL WAR.

GIVEN THOSE CONDITIONS, HOW WOULD YOU OPEN THIS UP?

>> IF I WAS LOOKING AT IT AS JOINT COMMANDER, THERE'S A MAJOR NAVAL COMPONENT OF COURSE.

THE NAVY HAS TO CONDUCT THE DEMINING AND ESCORT TANKERS THROUGH THE STRAIT AS THEY DID IN THE TANKER WARS OF THE 1980s.

THERE IS ALSO A MAJOR AIR AND POSSIBLY LAND COMPONENT.

AIR TO PROVIDE COVER TO TARGET MISSILE BATTERIES AND THE LIKE.

BUT ANY OPERATION LIKE THIS REQUIRES VERY LIKELY SOME FORM OF PRESENCE ON THE LAND BECAUSE IT IS ON THE LAND THAT THE DECISIONS WILL BE MADE, WHERE THE DECISIVE EFFECT TAKES PLACE.

IN ORDER TO CLEAR MISSILE LAUNCHERS AND POTENTIALLY ERECT SOME FORM OF ANTIDRONE DEFENSE TO PREVENT DRONES PENETRATING INTO THE STRAIT.

THINK THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX OPERATION.

IT IS NOT TO BE UNDERTAKEN LIGHTLY.

AND IT WOULD NEED OVERWHELMING FORCE TO SUCCEED.

>> SO TALKING ABOUT LAND, AN ISLAND THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN POSSIBLY OCCUPYING AND TAKING OVER IN ORDER TO CHOKE IRAN'S ENTIRE ECONOMIC LIFELINE.

THEN THE OTHER LAND, THE COASTLINE THAT'S RUNNING DOWN BY KHARG ISLAND.

SO IF THE U. S. WERE TO LAND MARINES OR WHATEVER ON THOSE PIECES OF TERRITORY, WOULD THAT BE AN EASY OPERATION TO HOLD?

OR ARE THEY SUBJECT TO FIRE FROM THE LAND?

>> WILL, WOULD BE A MAJOR OPERATION.

AND YOU MENTIONED KHARG ISLAND.

THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT KHARG ISLAND AND THERE'S A MARINE UNIT STREAMING TO THE GULF FROM JAPAN.

BUT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATION TO LAND ON KHARG ISLAND, YOU HAVE TO GET THEM THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SO IF YOU ARE TO TAKE THE ISLAND, IT WOULD BE AN AIR MISSION.

THIS IS COMPLEX STUFF, GOING TO REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT FORCE.

I'M SURE AMERICA CAN APPLY MASSIVE FORCE VERY QUICKLY AND CONCENTRATED.

INDEED THEY'VE BEEN, ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA, BOMBING STATIONS ON KHARG ISLAND AND IRANIANS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RESIST.

IT'S ONE THING TO TAKE IT, IT'S ANOTHER TO HOLD IT.

WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH IT?

AND IT'S ONE THING TO LAUNCH AN OPERATION TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, LAND AN AMPHIBIOUS FORCE, SECURE THE COASTLINE TO ALLOW A CONVOY OR SERIES OF CONVOYS THROUGH FOR A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF TIME.

BUT THEN WHAT DO YOU DO?

DO YOU OCCUPY IT PERMANENTLY?

THAT'S A DIFFERENT ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ALTOGETHER.

EVEN THEN, JUST THE MECHANICS OF LAUNCHING AN OPERATION TO SECURE A TEMPORARY PASSAGE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BY LANDING AMPHIBIOUS TROOPS WOULD BE MAJOR OPERATION.

>> THE U. S. ADMINISTRATION FROM TRUMP TO HEGSETH HAVE POOH-POOHED THE IDEA THAT THE STRAIT IS AN ISSUE, THAT OIL PRICES ARE AN ISSUE.

NOW THEY CLEARLY KNOW IT'S AN ISSUE.

BUT THEY KEEP SAYING SHORT-TERM PAIN FOR LONG- TERM GAIN.

AT THIS POINT, NEARLY THREE POINTS IN, WHO DO YOU THINK HAS GOT THE UPPER HAND IN THIS ASYMMETRICAL WAR NOW?

>> WELL, AMERICA AND ISRAEL HAS PULVERIZED AND BLASTED IRAN TO BITS.

AND IRAN'S MILITARY CAPABILITY BY ALL ACCOUNTS HAS BEEN SEVERELY DEGRADED.

SO IN THAT SENSE, IN ATTRITIONAL, INDUSTRIAL WARFARE SENSE, AMERICA AND ISRAEL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

BUT RIGHT NOW BECAUSE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS GLOBALLY, I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IN DANGER OF LOOKING PRETTY STUPID NOW.

BECAUSE CLEARLY HE AND HIS MILITARY PLANNERS DID NOT WAR GAME THE EFFECT AND LIKELY SECOND AND THIRD ORDER IMPACTS OF THEIR OPERATIONS.

WHICH HAVE LED NOT ONLY TO REGIONAL WAR, THE BLOCKING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND TO ECONOMIC GLOBAL MELTDOWN.

I THINK HE'S GOT HIMSELF IN A SENSE THE IRANIANS FOR ALL THEIR WEAKNESS HAVE GOT TRUMP OVER A BARREL NOW.

>> TO QUOTE A PHRASE.

HOW ABOUT THE PUTIN EFFECT?

YOU'VE BEEN VERY -- OBVIOUSLY --INTERESTED AND CONCERNED, BASED IN EUROPE, THIS PUTIN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE.

WORLD'S ATTENTION IS SHIFTING OFF UKRAINE.

SO MANY PATRIOT MISSILES HAVE BEEN USED BY AMERICAN ALLIES AND UKRAINE IS DESPERATE FOR THEM, AND THE RUSSIANS HAVE A LIFT ON THE SANCTIONS FOR THEIR OIL.

WHAT IS THAT GOING TO MEAN FOR THE WAR ON UKRAINE?

>> SO GLAD YOU MENTIONED IT.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON AMERICA'S WAR IN IRAN.

AND RIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE BENEFICIARY OF THIS WAR IS PUTIN.

FILLING UP HIS COFFERS WITH OIL DOLLARS AND REDUCING THE --THE REDUCTION IN SUPPORT BEING GIVEN TO UKRAINE.

THIS IS THE WAR.

THIS IS THE REAL ISSUE CERTAINLY FOR EUROPE AND WE SHOULD NOT FORGET ABOUT THAT.

AND OF COURSE, BECAUSE TRUMP IS FOCUSED ON THIS, EVERYBODY ELSE IS FOCUSED ON IT.

BUT WE MUST ABSOLUTELY DOUBLE DOWN.

EUROPEANS SHOULD BE SAYING THIS IS THE MOMENT TO BE DOUBLING DOWN AND INCREASING SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

AS I HAVE SAID CONSTANTLY, THERE'S NEVER GOING TO BE A LASTING CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE UNTIL RUSSIA IS FORCED TO ACCEPT DEFEAT IN UKRAINE.

THAT'S ONLY GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN EUROPE AND CANADA AS WELL --YOU CAN WRITE OUT AMERICA I THINK --STEP UP TO THE MARK AND MAKE THE NECESSARY SACRIFICES TO SOURCE A STRATEGY TO DEFEAT RUSSIA IN UKRAINE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING, THE WORLD IS FACING THE BIGGEST OIL DISRUPTION IN HISTORY.

THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WILL RELEASE 400 MILLION BARRELS IN EMERGENCY OIL BUT CRUDE HAS RISEN TO HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2022.

GAS PRICES UP 26% IN THE UNITED STATES AND GROCERY PRICES COULD SOAR AS FERTILIZERS CAN'T GET THROUGH.

ECONOMISTS ARE WATCHING WITH SOME ALARM, WARNING IT TO LEAD TO THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO OF STAGFLATION.

THE CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR AND WHARTON SCHOOL, JOINING ME FROM THE UNITED STATES TO EXPLAIN WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

YOU HEARD RICHARD SHIRRIFF TALK ABOUT THE MILITARY IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SITUATION RIGHT NOW.

WHAT IS YOUR HEADLINE HOW THIS IS AFFECTING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FOR HOW LONG?

>> MY HEADLINE WILL BE WE RISK GOING FROM SHORTENED DISRUPTION TO LONG-TERM STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO THE OIL MARKET.

YOU HEARD THE GUEST SAY, THERE'S NO QUICK END TO THE WAR.

AS YOU POINTED OUT, IT'S ASYMMETRICAL WAR.

AND THEY'RE NOT ALIGNED.

THE INCREASE IN THE OIL PRICE IS GOING TO PERSIST FOR A WHILE, MEANING NOT ONLY HIGHER INTEREST RATES BUT LOWER GROWTH, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, AND GREATER RISK OF FINANCIAL INSTABILITY.

>> LAST WEEK, NOT EVEN NOW BUT LAST WEEK, SAUDI ARABIA'S ARAMCO, THE TOP OIL EXPORTER, CEO CHIEF WARNS THERE WILL BE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WORLD IF THE WAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THAT SHIPPING.

YOU ENUMERATED IT A BIT.

WE TALK ABOUT STAGFLATION.

TELL ME WHAT THAT MEANS.

I'VE HEARD, TELL ME IF I'M WRONG, COULD LEAD TO A 2008 STYLE RECESSION IF NOT ENDED SOON.

>> STAGFLATION HAS TWO ELEMENTS THAT ARE BAD NEWS.

STAG, ECONOMIC GROWTH COMES DOWN, STAGNATION, AND FLATION MEANS THERE'S INFLATION.

AVERAGE PERSON HAS PURCHASING POWER ERODED BECAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES AND THEY START WORRYING ABOUT INCOME BECAUSE LOWER GROWTH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT.

STAGFLATION ALSO PARALYZES THE POLICY MAKERS, IT'S VERY HARD TO COUNTER IN THE SHORT RUN.

IT'S SOMETHING YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE.

HAVEN'T REALLY SINCE THE '70s AND TOOK A TOLL ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE '70s.

>> WOW, SINCE THE '70s, I REMEMBER THE OIL CENTER RISIS, BUT HADN'T COMPUTED THIS IS THE WORST SINCE THEN.

I'M GOING TO PLAY A SOUND BITE FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PRESS CONFERENCE, TALKING ABOUT HOW ALL THESE COUNTRIES, INCLUDING CHINA, SHOULD COME TO THE RESCUE.

BUT FIRST KEVIN HASSET, TRUMP'S HEAD OF THE ECONOMIC COUNCIL, SPEAKING TO CBS OVER THE WEEKEND SAYING BASICALLY, TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DOESN'T SEEM PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT SHORT OR LONG-TERM EFFECT OF ALL OF THIS.

LET ME PLAY IT FOR YOU.

>> AMERICA IS IN A STRONG POSITION, THEY THINK THEY'RE GOING TO HARM THE U. S. ECONOMY AND GET PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BACK DOWN, COULDN'T BE A STUPIDER THING TO SAY.

OUR ECONOMY HAS ALL THIS MOMENTUM IN THE WORLD AND WE'VE GOT LOTS AND LOTS OF OIL.

WE EXPECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL HAVE A BIG POSITIVE SHOCK AS SOON AS THIS IS OVER.

WE'RE BEING BRIEFED IT'S FOUR TO SIX WEEKS FROM THE BEGINNING AND WE'RE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

>> A BIG SMILE.

IS THAT FROM AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE, THAT OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, REASONABLE?

>> IN RELATIVE TERMS, THE U. S. ECONOMY IS BETTER PLACED THAN VIRTUALLY ANY OTHER ECONOMY TO HANDLE THE STAGFLATION WIND THAT'S NOW BLOWING BECAUSE OF THIS WAR.

THAT IS UNAMBIGUOUS.

BUT THAT'S A RELATIVE STATEMENT.

IN ABSOLUTE TERM, GROWTH WILL BE LOWER, INFLATION HIGHER, AND RISK OF FINANCIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER.

YES, WE'LL OUTPERFORM OTHER COUNTRIES, THE U. S. WILL, HOWEVER WE'LL BE LESS WELL OFF THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE.

THAT'S SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM IS HOTLY DEBATED.

THERE'S A VIEW THAT COULD REDUCE RISK IN LONG TERM.

A LOT OF THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO IRAN AFTER THE WAR AND THERE'S MANY SCENARIOS.

>> ONE OF THE SCENARIOS, WROTE IN THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL," THE IRAN WAR WILL LOWER ENERGY PRICES.

NOW I'M GOING TO PLAY TRUMP ON CHINA'S ROLE.

>> CHINA IS A GREAT EXAMPLE, THEY GET 91% OF THEIR OIL FROM THE HORMUZ STRAITS, WHICH WE PROTECTED FOR YEARS.

AND IT ALWAYS BOTHERED ME WE HAVE THESE COUNTRIES --JAPAN GETS 95% FROM THE HORMUZ STRAITS.

AND IT ALWAYS BOTHERED ME WE'RE PROTECTING IT, WE DON'T NEED THEM.

>> YOU KNOW, THE SAME SORT OF THEME, WE DON'T NEED THEM, WE'RE PROTECTING THEM, WHY DO WE NEED TO, BLAH BLAH.

CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT HE THINKS CHINA AND JAPAN COULD DO.

THEY HAVEN'T RESPONDED, NOR HAS SOUTH KOREA OR THE EUROPEANS, TO THE CALL TO COME HELP OPEN THE STRAITS.

AND ALSO NAVARRO SAID THE IRAN WAR WILL LOWER ENERGY PRICES.

>> IT IS A FACT THAT CHINA IN PARTICULAR IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON OIL FROM THE STRAIT, FROM IRAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES THERE.

THEY ARE A MAJOR IMPORTER, THEREFORE THEY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE.

THEY HAVE BUILTUP STORAGE, IT'S NOT AN IMMEDIATE ISSUE, BUT IT IS TRUE.

THE ARGUMENT THEN GOES, CHINA SHOULD HELP IN OPENING UP THE STRAIT, BUT AS YOU HEARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUEST, THAT IS A BIG STEP FOR ANY COUNTRY TO DO.

SO OTHER COUNTRIES DON'T MAKE THAT LINK QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE U. S. DOES.

IN TERMS OF LONGER TERM, IT DEPENDS WHAT YOU FEEL WILL HAPPEN IN IRAN.

IF IRAN, I HOPE THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN FOR THE REGION, BUT IF IRAN ENDS UP BEING AN IRAQ, A LIBYA, WHERE THERE'S A CIVIL WAR, I CAN ASSURE YOU THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES WILL NOT BE COMFORTABLE ABOUT THIS.

THEY WILL NOT WANT ANOTHER BIG AREA OF INSTABILITY.

OIL PRICES OVER THE LONGER TERM WILL NOT GO DOWN AS PETER NAVARRO HOPES.

BUT IF THIS ENDS UP AS A STABLE IRAN AND GEOPOLITICAL IN A MEANINGFUL WAY, HIS ARGUMENT WILL STAND.

>> IT DEPENDS ON THE END GAME.

I ASKED YOU A LITTLE BIT BEFORE AND NOT SURE YOU ANSWERED ME.

A POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION, 2008 STYLE.

THIS COMES AFTER THE RECESSION, THE COVID DISRUPTION, THE TARIFF CHAOS THE WORLD HAS BEEN THROWN INTO, TRUMP'S TARIFFS.

IT'S GOT A MUCH BIGGER AND DEEPER CRISIS.

WORLD KEEPS TRYING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SHOCKS, ECONOMIC SHOCKS IT'S BEEN DELIVERED SINCE AT LEAST 2008.

WHERE IS THE RESILIENCE?

DO YOU THINK THERE IS RESILIENCE TO KEEP CLIMBING OUT?

>> THAT RESILIENCE IS GETTING ERODED.

IT'S FINANCIAL AND HUMAN RESILIENCE.

PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION TODAY IS 35%.

NOT OVERWHELMING BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT.

WHY?

BECAUSE THE HIGHER OIL PRICES, HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, ARE COMING ON TOP OF OTHER THINGS.

AND THREE IN PARTICULAR ARE IMPORTANT.

ONE IS WE GOT DATA LAST WEEK THAT SHOWS THE U. S. ECONOMY WAS SLOWING GOING INTO THE WAR.

THE GDP GROWTH FROM FOURTH QUARTER WAS HALF, 1.

4 TO .

7.

IT'S NOT DYNAMIC AS WE THOUGHT.

AND IT'S MUCH MORE LIMITED.

WE ALREADY RUN A LARGE FISCAL DEFICIT, CAN'T SIMPLY THROW MONEY AT IT.

BOND MARKETS ARE GETTING IMPATIENT, AND THE CENTRAL BANK IS NOT GOING TO CUT INTEREST RATES WHILE WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION.

THERE'S NO POLICY OFFSETS LIKE WE HAD FOR COVID.

THIRD REASON, WE HAVE FINANCIAL FRAGILITY THAT'S SEPARATE FROM THE WAR.

TALK ABOUT PRIVATE CREDIT, THE AI BUBBLE.

THAT DYNAMICALLY CAN GET INVOLVED IN ALL THIS.

WHEN YOU PUT THE THREE THINGS TOGETHER, YOU'RE FACING A RECESSION RISK OF 35%, IT MAY NOT BE AN OVERWHELMING RECESSION, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE --OVERWHELMING PROBABILITY, BUT THE IMPACT WOULD BE REALLY MEANINGFUL IF IT MATERIALIZES.

>> WHAT KEEPS YOU UP AT NIGHT?

THE "NEW YORK TIMES" REPORTS THAT TRUMP IS GETTING ADVICE FROM THE SAUDIS TO KEEP HITTING THE IRANIANS HARD.

WE THOUGHT THE GULF WAS TRYING TO DISCOURAGE HIM ATTACKING.

THE PRIME MINISTER SAID NEIGHBORING STATES ARE ENABLING --AND HE'S UPPED THE THREATS TO AMERICAN INTERESTS IN THE GULF STATES, FINANCIAL CENTERS HAVE BEEN THREATENED, ALL OF IT.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE GULF?

>> A MAJOR DISRUPTION.

A GOLDMAN SACHS STUDY SHOWED THAT COUNTRIES LIKE KUWAIT WOULD SEE 30% OF THEIR GDP KNOCKED OFF.

IT'S A LOT ON THEM.

IT PUTS IN DOUBT THE SPECIAL STATUS THESE COUNTRIES WERE LOOKING FOR, THINK DUBAI.

IT'S MEANINGFUL FOR THE REGION.

I THINK THEY'LL RECOVER QUICKLY.

BUT WHAT KEEPS ME UP, I DON'T OFFRAMPS.

I SEE MISALIGNED OBJECTIVES BETWEEN ISRAEL, THE U. S. AND IRAN.

AND I SEE THE VERY DIFFICULT TASK OF ENDING AN ASYMMETRICAL WAR.

THERE'S NO CLEAR END TO THIS CONFLICT AS YET.

>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

> >> EXPLOITING THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY DESCRIBING RUSSIA, AZ AS PUTIN FIRES A BARRAGE ON UKRAINE OVER THE WEEKEND THAT KILLED AT LEAST SIX PEOPLE.

THE WAR ON IRAN IS USING UP PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE MISSILES IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT ARE DESPERATELY NEEDED, AND PUTIN IS GETTING A BREAK ON THE OIL PRICES PER BARREL.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, WELCOME BACK.

>> THANK YOU.

>> FROM THE UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE, HOW ARE YOU FEELING WATCHING THIS WAR, WATCHING THE EYE TAKEN OFF UKRAINE, AND AS I DESCRIBE, THE BENEFITS TO PUTIN.

>> WELL, CLEARLY PUTIN HAS MORE INCENTIVES TO CONTINUE THE AGGRESSION THAN HE HAD BEFORE.

THERE'S BEEN A COORDINATED EFFORT TO MAKE HIS ECONOMY SUFFER.

CLEARLY THIS EFFORT IS FAILING BECAUSE HE'S MAKING MORE MONEY ON THE OIL PRICES.

AND GENERALLY SPEAKING, WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SANCTIONS AND THE LACK OF ATTENTION TO WHAT HE'S DOING RIGHT NOW, HE FEELS MORE FREE TO PROCEED WITH HIS AGGRESSION PLANS.

WE DON'T FEEL THIS IS GOING TO END SOON IN UKRAINE AT ALL.

WE'RE PREPARING FOR THE LONGER ENGAGEMENT AND WAR, AND BASICALLY ALL WE THINK NOW IS HOW TO CLOSE THE SKY BECAUSE AS YOU MENTIONED, WE HAVE A LOT OF NEW AIR STRIKES WITH DRONES AND ROCKETS, AND BASICALLY WE SEE MORE ESCALATION THAN DE-ESCALATION.

>> HOW DO YOU ASSESS IN NUMERICAL VALUE AND EFFECTIVENESS THE NEED FOR PATRIOTS?

YOU'VE BEEN ASKING FOR A LONG TIME THE MISSILES TO GO IN YOUR BATTERIES, ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM, AND SO MANY ARE BEING USED IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

NOT SURE I CAN FIND NUMBERS.

ZELENSKYY HAS BEEN SAYING MIDDLE EAST PARTNERS HAVE MORE PATRIOTS THAN WE GOT FROM THE U. S. AND EUROPEANS DURING ALL THE WAR.

USED MORE THAN 800 IN THE FIRST HOURS OF THE WAR THAN WE HAD IN THE MONTHS AND YEARS OF OUR WAR.

I THINK AT ONE POINT HE SAID LET'S DO A TRADE, I'LL SEND MORE EFFICIENT AND CHEAPER ANTIDRONE DRONES, YOU SEND US THE PATRIOTS WE NEED TO TAKE DOWN RUSSIA'S BALLISTIC MISSILES.

>> CLEARLY PATRIOT MISSILES HAVE BECOME AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF ANYONE'S DEFENSE AND THERE'S A SHORTAGE OF THEM, GLOBAL SHORTAGE.

WITH THE ESCALATION OF THE WARS AROUND THE WORLD, THIS BECOMES A BIGGER ISSUE.

THERE'S BEEN DISCUSSIONS WITH MANUFACTURING ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS BUT THIS IS PROBABLY HIGHEST OF THE AIR DEFENSE GROUND- BASED TECHNOLOGY.

WHAT WE SEE RIGHT NOW IS THAT MAKING MISSILES IS EASIER THAN TO MAKE ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE, PARTICULARLY TALKING ABOUT BALLISTIC MISSILES.

FOR INSTANCE, UKRAINE IS MAKING NEW BALLISTIC MISSILES ITSELF RIGHT NOW, CLEARLY IRAN IS MAKING THEM AND RUSSIA IS UPGRADING PRODUCTION OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

WHILE THE ONLY MEANINGFUL DEFENSE AGAINST THEM IS THE PATRIOT.

THIS IMBALANCE IS ENORMOUS.

IF WE SEE ESCALATION OF WARS AROUND THE WORLD, THIS DISBALANCE WILL GROW.

THIS IS A THREAT TO STABILITY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD AND WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THAT.

FRANKLY SPEAKING, THERE'S NOT MUCH PROPOSALS RIGHT NOW AROUND.

>> RIGHT.

CAN YOU HEAR ME?

>> EXISTING PRODUCTION.

>> OKAY.

WE SEEM TO HAVE LOST YOU.

>> YES, I CAN.

>> I CAN HEAR YOU, SEE YOU.

LET'S ASK YOU ANOTHER QUESTION.

PEACE TALKS ARE OFF, PESHKOV SAID THERE'S BEEN A PAUSE.

THIS IS WHAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY TOLD CNN ABOUT THE RELATIVE PRESSURE ON HIM VERSUS PUTTIN.

>> I'M STILL SURE THAT AMERICA HAS TO MAKE BIG PRESSURE ON PUTIN, OTHERWISE HE WILL NOT NEGOTIATE.

HE WANTS ONLY ULTIMATUMS FROM US TO WITHDRAW FROM OUR TERRITORY.

BUT HE WILL NOT END WITH THIS.

NOT ENOUGH FOR HIM.

HIS APPETITE IS VERY GOOD.

THE SITUATION IS VERY BIG.

APPETITE.

THE SITUATION IN IRAN GIVES HIM MORE MONEY AND THE PROCESS OF TAKING OFF THE SANCTIONS, THIS NEW SANCTION POLICY IS HELPFUL FOR HIM PERSONALLY.

>> I WANT TO KNOW FROM YOU, HOW DO YOU THINK PUTIN WILL USE THE MONEY?

UKRAINE'S FORTUNES WERE CHANGING, RECENTLY IMPROVED.

STAR LINK SHUT OFF FOR RUSSIANS AND UKRAINE WAS TAKING SOME TERRITORY BACK AND RUSSIA'S ECONOMY WAS SHOWING SOME STRAIN.

WHAT DO YOU THINK RUSSIA WILL DO IMMEDIATELY WITH THE BOUNTY IT WILL GET IN ITS COFFERS?

>> IT'S VERY SIMPLE, THEY WILL INCREASE PRODUCTION OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS AND KEEP ESCALATING THE WAR IN UKRAINE FOR SURE.

WE SEE THAT PUTIN IS ABSOLUTELY ADAMANT TO CONTINUE THE WAR.

HASN'T BEEN A SINGLE INDICATOR THEY'RE READY FOR REAL, MEANINGFUL NEGOTIATIONS AND THINKING ABOUT STOPPING THE WAR.

ALL THEY WILL DO IS INCREASE THE PRESSURE ON UKRAINE AND THREATEN EUROPE.

THERE IS A NEW, EMERGING THREAT TO EUROPE BECAUSE EUROPE IS EXTREMELY WORRIED ABOUT THE POSSIBLE ESCALATION FROM RUSSIA.

AND THAT RISK WILL GROW.

RUSSIA WILL USE MONEY IN ORDER NOT TO MAKE THEIR PEOPLE MORE WELL OFF AND THEIR ECONOMY STRONGER BUT INCREASE THE WAR EFFORT.

WE'RE SEEING THIS RIGHT NOW.

WE'LL SEE IT IN THE FUTURE UNFORTUNATELY.

>> THERE HAD BEEN PROPERTIES AND PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY CONFIRMED THAT RUSSIA GAVE DRONES TO THE SHAHIDS, USING IRANIAN LICENSES, BUILT AND RELEASED A LOT OF THEM.

HE SAYS THE IRANIAN REGIME HAS USED INTELLIGENCE TO GIVE -- GOT BY RUSSIA.

THAT'S FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE.

STEVE WITKOFF TOLD THE PRESS WE TALKED TO THE RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP, AND THEY DENIED THEY'RE GIVING ANY INTELLIGENCE OR SPECIAL INFORMATION.

I CAN SEE YOU SMILING.

TO THE IRANIANS.

HE SAID, WITKOFF, WE HAVE TO TAKE THEM AT THEIR WORD.

WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THAT?

>> WELL, RUSSIA AND IRAN ARE ALLIES, THEY ARE VERY CLOSE, EXCHANGING TECHNOLOGIES, PAYING EACH OTHER.

IRAN HAS PROVIDED TECHNOLOGY FOR SHAHID DRONES WHICH ARE ALL OVER UKRAINE RIGHT NOW.

AND RUSSIA IS HELPING WITH THE MONEY, THE OTHER RESOURCES FOR IRAN TO SUCCEED.

THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT WITH THIS CLOSE RELATIONSHIP THERE IS AN EXCHANGE OF INTELLIGENCE.

WHATEVER RUSSIA CAN DO TO HELP IRAN, THEY'RE DOING IT.

WE ALSO KNOW THAT RUSSIA LIES ALL THE TIME.

NOT SAYING TRUTH.

THEY ARE CLEARLY MISLEADING PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST, SO TO TRUST RUSSIA IS NOT DOING THAT, THAT'S A BIT NAIVE, FRANKLY SPEAKING.

>> WHY DO YOU THINK RUSSIA, CHINA OR IRANIAN ALLIES ARE NOT COMING TO IRAN'S DEFENSE?

HOW DO YOU READ THAT?

>> I DON'T THINK RUSSIA HAS CAPABILITY TO DO THAT.

RUSSIA IS CURRENTLY COMPLETELY, MASSIVELY SUNK IN UKRAINE.

THEY CANNOT ACHIEVE ANY MEANINGFUL PROGRESS.

AND ALL THEY DO RIGHT NOW, BOMBING OUR CITIES EVERY DAY, BUT CANNOT ACHIEVE PROGRESS ON LAND.

CLEARLY THEY'RE FAILING IN THE SEA.

SO RUSSIA, DESPITE THE ECONOMIC POWER AND INCREASING ECONOMIC POWER, THEY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THEIR ARMED FORCES.

THEY'RE STRUGGLING TO RECRUIT ENOUGH PEOPLE, LOSING MORE THAN THEY RECRUIT RIGHT NOW.

I DON'T THINK THEY CAN ACTUALLY HELP IRAN, APART FROM SHIPPING WEAPON SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES, MAYBE MONEY, AND DEFINITELY INTELLIGENCE.

>> ON THAT NOTE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US WITH THIS IMPORTANT UPDATE.

> >> SINCE THE START OF HIS SECOND TERM, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS PARDONED MORE THAN 1,800 PEOPLE.

OVER THE WEEKEND, JOSH NAST, A NEW YORK ATTORNEY AND LOBBYIST WAS CHARGED FOR TRYING TO EXTORT MONEY FROM HIS CLIENT, WHO REPORTEDLY PAID TO GET CLEMENCY.

AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT, KENNETH VOGEL SPOKE TO MARTIN ABOUT THE PARDON INDUSTRY.

>> THANKS FOR TALKING WITH US.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> LOT OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF WASHINGTON, LEGAL AFFAIRS, MIGHT HAVE STARTED THINKING ABOUT PARDONS BECAUSE ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS PRESIDENT TRUMP DID WAS PARDON ALL THE PEOPLE CONVICTED IN CONNECTION WITH THE JANUARY 6th ATTACKS ON THE CAPITOL.

YOU'VE BEEN LOOKING AT A GROWING PARDON INDUSTRY AROUND THE ADMINISTRATION.

HOW DID YOU START?

WHAT MADE YOU THINK OF IT?

>> WE STARTED LOOKING AT THE END OF THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, WHEN THERE WAS THE STRUGGLE BY HIM AND HIS SUPPORTERS TO CLING TO POWER JANUARY 6th.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE WAS A NETWORK OF ALLIES AROUND HIM PUSHING TO USE THE LAME DUCK PERIOD THEY KNEW WOULD BE COMING TO AN END TO POSITION CLIENTS, ALLIES AND SUPPORTERS TO GET CLEMENCY FROM TRUMP.

IT'S NOT UNCOMMON FOR A PRESIDENT AT THE END OF A TERM TO USE THE PERIOD OF TIME TO PARDON PEOPLE IN THOSE CATEGORIES BECAUSE IT'S CONTROVERSIAL DECISION, PROPER CHANNELS OR NOT.

SO THEY WAIT TO THE END OF THE TERM TO DO IT BECAUSE THEY THINK I'M ALMOST OUT OF HERE.

EVEN AS TRUMP WAS PROTESTING HE WASN'T GOING TO BE OUT OF THERE, THERE WAS MACHINERY BEHIND THE SCENES THAT HAD CREATED A PIPELINE TO GET THE PARDON APPLICATIONS TO HIS DEATH.

NOT APPLICATIONS THAT HAD GONE THROUGH THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT PROCESS FOR THE MOST PART, OVERWHELMINGLY BROUGHT TO HIS ATTENTION BY ALLIES AND SUPPORTERS, SOME GETTING PAID TO BRING THEM TO HIS ATTENTION.

>> ONE HIGHLIGHT IS JOSEPH SCHWARTZ, FORMER NURSING HOME EXECUTIVE WHO PAID MORE THAN A MILLION DOLLARS TO LOBBYISTS, LAWYERS, POLITICAL ACTORS SEEKING A PARDON AND GOT ONE AFTER SERVING ONLY A FEW WEEKS IN PRISON.

YOU TRIED TO REACH OUT AND HE DIDN'T ANSWER.

BUT WHAT DOES THIS CASE SAY ABOUT THE PROCESS?

>> HIS CASE WAS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING TO US BOTH BECAUSE IT WAS SORT OF A MYSTERY.

WHEN HE GOT PARDONED, IT WASN'T IMMEDIATELY CLEAR AS IT IS IN OTHER CASES THAT THIS PERSON KNEW THAT PERSON, THIS PERSON PAID THAT PERSON.

IN FACT THE PEOPLE ON RECORD FILED LOBBYIST REPORTS THAT REVEALED THEY WERE PAID BY SCHWARTZ, THEY WERE NOT TYPICAL TRUMP INSIDERS, THEY WERE RIGHT-WING CONSPIRACISTS WHO DIDN'T STRIKE US AS HAVING THAT JUICE IN TRUMP WORLD.

SO WE LOOKED AROUND, THIS GUY WENT THROUGH TRIAL AND ERROR, FIRST PAID TWO RIGHT- WING CONSPIRACISTS, NOT WORKING, GOES TO PRISON.

STARTS PAYING ANOTHER LOBBYIST WHO IS TIED TO PRO-ISRAEL AND EVANGELICAL CIRCLES.

AND PEOPLE INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE.

INCLUDING A LAWYER WHO REPRESENTED HER FOR HER CLEMENCY IN THE FIRST TRUMP TERM.

EVEN FOR ALL OUR REPORTINGS, WE COULDN'T DRAW A DIRECT LINE FROM THIS PAYMENT TO THAT PERSON TO THE PARDON.

BUT IT OFFERED A SNAPSHOT TO LOOK AT THE INDUSTRY AND THE WAY DIFFERENT PEOPLE ARE SEEKING TO ADVANCE CLEMENCY CASES BY USING CONNECTIONS WITH TRUMP AND CRAFTING ARGUMENTS TO RESONATE WITH TRUMP.

>> IS THERE SOMETHING DIFFERENT ABOUT TRUMP'S FIRST TERM AND SECOND TERM?

>> CERTAINLY IT STARTED EARLIER AND WITH A BANG, NEARLY 1,600 PARDONS OF PEOPLE CONVICTED FOR CHARGES RELATED TO JANUARY 6th.

THEN HE QUICKLY PIVOTED TO PARDON SOME THAT WERE A CELEBRITY LINK, SOME CAUSES HE PARDONED.

TWO POLICE OFFICERS IN WASHINGTON, D. C. , HAD BEEN CONVICTED RELATED TO A CHASE THAT KILLED AN UNARMED BLACK MAN.

MOVED ON TO PARDONING ANTIABORTION PROTESTERS CONVICTED IN RELATION TO THEIR ACTIVITIES OUTSIDE OF AN ABORTION CLINIC.

THESE ARE POLITICAL CASES HE THINKS WILL APPEAL TO SOME OF THE BASE.

BUT OTHERS, TWO CONSERVATIVE, PRO-TRUMP REALITY TV STARS, TODD AND JULIE CHRISLEY.

THAT'S THE CELEBRITY FRONT.

THEN A HOST OF FRAUDSTERS, MOST INTERESTING TO US, THERE'S NOT AN OBVIOUS POLITICAL CONNECTION.

HERE'S AN ADMINISTRATION MAKING A POLITICAL STAND ON CRACKING DOWN ON FRAUD AND SIMULTANEOUSLY PARDONING FRAUDSTERS CONVICTED OF DEFRAUDING CLIENTS AND THE U. S. GOVERNMENT, MEDICARE FRAUD, TAX FRAUD, AND THESE ARE THE MOST AFFLUENT OFFENDERS WHO ARE HAVE THE CONNECTIONS THEMSELVES, HAVE GIVEN MONEY, HAVE THE RESOURCES TO HIRE SOMEONE.

I FOCUSED ON THEM BECAUSE THEY PLAY MOST TO MY SPECIALTY AND BEAT, FOLLOWING THE MONEY, LOOKING AT VARIOUS WAYS THAT MONEY INFLUENCES POLITICS.

AS YOU INTIMATED, THERE'S A NEW INDUSTRY, THE PARDON INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX THEY CALL IT, THAT'S BECOME IN SOME WAYS A CRITICAL CHANNEL FOR MONEY INFLUENCING POLITICS.

>> LOBBYING HAS BEEN A PART OF POLITICS LIKE GOSH, THE 1800s, AND THE PRESIDENT'S PARDON POWER IS ABSOLUTE.

DURING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT TO CREATE SOME SORT OF SYSTEM TO USE THE PARDON POWER TO ADDRESS CIRCUMSTANCES THAT --WHERE PUBLIC OPINION HAD CHANGED.

BUT LOBBYING ALWAYS PART OF IT.

CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, PEOPLE WERE PARDONED THAT MANY PEOPLE NOW LOOK AT THAT, WHAT HAPPENED THERE.

IS THERE SOMETHING DISTINCT EVEN WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THOSE EARLIER ERAS?

>> YES.

YOUR QUESTION POINTS TO TWO EXTREMES OF THE PROCESS.

OBAMA WORKED THROUGH THIS SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM CREATED BY THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT TO IDENTIFY AND VET PEOPLE WHO WERE WORTHY OF CLEMENCY FOR REASONS HAVING TO DO WITH SHIFTING ENFORCEMENT OR PERCEPTION OF LAWS OR SHIFTING LAWS RELATED TO SENTENCING.

BIGGEST GROUP OF THE OBAMA PARDONS WAS NONVIOLENT DRUG OFFENSES.

THAT WERE SHIFTING IN THE WAY WE LOOKED AT THE LAWS AND ENFORCED THEM, AND LAWS THEMSELVES SHIFTED.

THIS SYSTEM WAS SET UP TO IDENTIFY BIG GROUPS OF PEOPLE AT THE DIRECTION OF THE PRESIDENT AND DETERMINE IN THE GROUPS WHO WERE MOST WORTHY AND LEAST LIKELY TO RESID VAT.

THAT'S THE PROCESS.

CLINTON MOSTLY FOLLOWED THE PROCESS BUT ALSO PARDONED SOME POLITICAL SUPPORTERS OR RELATIVES.

HE PARDONED PEOPLE WHO HAD PAID HIS RELATIVES, NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TRUMP.

THE DIFFERENCE IS CLINTON MOSTLY ADHERED TO THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT FUNNEL SYSTEM, MOST OF HIS GRANTS ISSUED THROUGH THERE.

ALMOST 91 OF TRUMP'S ARE.

>> IT'S A FEATURE, NOT A BUG?

>> THAT'S A GOOD WAY TO PUT IT.

>> THE WHITE HOUSE HAS PUSHED BACK STRONGLY THAT MONEY OR LOBBYISTS ARE PART OF THESE DECISIONS.

LEAVITT SAID ANYONE SPENDING MONEY TO LOBBY FOR PARDONS IS FOOLISHING WASTING THEIR MONEY AND THE PRESIDENT DOESN'T KNOW WHO THEY ARE.

SAYING THEY HAVE A ROBUST PARDON REVIEW PROCESS AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THE FINAL DECIDER.

WE KNOW THE PRESIDENT IS THE FINAL DECIDER, AS WE SAID IT'S ABSOLUTE.

HOW DO YOU SQUARE THE REST OF THAT WITH THE PATTERNS YOU'VE UNCOVERED?

>> ANOTHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TRADITIONAL WAY THAT CLEMENCY GRANTS ARE PROCESSED AND ANNOUNCED VERSUS HOW TRUMP IS DOING IT -- AND THE WAY NOW IS DIFFERENT FROM HIS FIRST TERM.

IN HIS FIRST TERM HE DID ANNOUNCE, EVEN IN THE SPREE OF PARDONS AND COMMUTATIONS END OF THE TERM, THE WHITE HOUSE WOULD PUT OUT STATEMENTS JUSTIFYING ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE.

THIS PERSON WAS SUPPORTED BY THESE PEOPLE, HERE'S WHAT THEY'VE DONE IN THE COMMUNITY.

MAKING A CASE.

NOW THEY DON'T.

THE WHITE HOUSE SAYING THIS IS THE RESULT OF A RIGOROUS PROCESS, THE PEOPLE ARE ALL DESERVING, YOU KNOW, LOBBYING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, THEY'RE ASKING US TO TAKE THEIR WORD FOR IT.

>> SOME OF THE CASES YOU'VE REPORTED ON, THERE WERE VICTIMS WHO WERE EXPECTING RESTITUTION, THE COURTS FOUND.

>> IN CASE OF SCHWARTZ, HE DID PAY HIS RESTITUTION, RARE CASE.

BUT MANY OTHERS DID NOT PAY RESTITUTION, THEY WERE SEEKING THE PARDON BECAUSE THEY WERE AWARE OF THE DEADLINES FOR ASPECTS OF THEIR SENTENCE, REPORTING TO PRISON AND ALSO THE RESTITUTION THEY WERE WANTING TO AVOID.

THAT'S WIPED AWAY, THAT'S ONE OF THE ELEMENTS OF THE SENTENCE THAT'S WIPED AWAY.

AN EXAMPLE EARLY IN THE TERM, A GUY BY THE NAME OF PAUL WALZAK.

HE GOT A PARDON.

FAMILY HAD BEEN MODERATE REPUBLICAN DONORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE TRUMPY SCENE.

BUT WE LEARNED AND REPORTED THAT HIS MOTHER HAD BEEN IN BUSINESS WITH HIM AND MADE A MILLION DOLLAR DONATION TO MAGA, INC.

WHICH ENTIRED HER TO A DINNER WITH DONORS AND PRESIDENT TRUMP WHERE SHE PLEADED HIS CASE.

HE HAD PLEADED GUILTY AND HE WAS WAITING TO REPORT AND PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUED THE PARDON BEFORE HE HAD TO REPORT.

EXCUSED FROM OVER $4 MILLION IN RESTITUTION.

IF THE $1 MILLION GOT HER THE AUDIENCE THAT LED TO HAVING SUCCESSFUL PLEADING WOULD HAVE BEEN A GOOD INVESTMENT.

>> IN THIS CASE WOULD YOU SAY THERE'S A QUID PRO QUO?

IN ANY OF THE CASES IS IT CLEAR OR MAINLY BY INFERENCE?

>> GOOD QUESTION, GLAD YOU BROUGHT IT UP.

I DON'T MEAN TO SUGGEST THERE WAS A SMOKING GUN WITH A CAUSAL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE DONATION, LOBBYING AND PARDON.

IT'S ALMOST NEVER -- I HAVEN'T FOUND A CASE I COULD DEFINITIVELY PROVE THERE.

THERE'S ALWAYS PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY.

WE GO OUT OF OUR WAY TO CAPTURE THE EXPLANATION FROM THE WHITE HOUSE THAT PUSHES BACK ON THAT.

PART OF THE REASON WE CAN'T DEFINITIVELY ANSWER THE QUESTIONS, IT'S STILL A BLACK BOX, OPAQUE THING.

PRESIDENT IS THE ULTIMATE DECIDER AS KAROLINE LEAVITT PUT IN.

IT'S UNFETTERED POWER AND ONE OF THE MOST SWEEPING ONES OF THE PRESIDENT THAT REALLY NO ONE CAN CHECK HIM ON IT.

>> IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE REMEMBER AT THE END OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION THE PRESIDENT PARDONED MEMBERS OF HIS IMMEDIATE FAMILY, HIS SON WHO HAD BEEN CONVICTED ON GUN CHARGES.

HIS SISTER FOR SOME REASON.

HE PARDONED PEOPLE WHO --IT WAS SAID ON HIS BEHALF --THEY WOULD BE TARGETED.

WHAT IS THE DISCOURSE ON PARDONS GIVEN WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED IN JUST THE FIRST YEAR OF THE SECOND TRUMP TERM.

YOU SAID CONGRESS HAS THOUGHT ABOUT TRYING TO INTERVENE BUT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE AN AVENUE TO DO SO.

IT'S A CONSTITUTION RIGHT THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS, SPECIFIC TO THAT OFFICE.

OF WHAT ARE PEOPLE SAYING ABOUT THIS?

>> THERE'S BIPARTISAN LEGISLATION, BUT THE REPUBLICAN WHO SPONSORED IT IN THE HOUSE IS REPRESENTATIVE DON BACON OF NEBRASKA, WHO HAS EMERGED AS A BIT OF A THORN IN TRUMP'S SIDE AND WILLING TO TAKE HIM ON ON AN ARRAY OF ISSUES.

NONETHELESS, THIS IS REGARDED BY SERIOUS PEOPLE WHO STUDY THIS ISSUE ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AS PROBLEMATIC AND MAYBE AN EMERGING TREND.

THAT'S THE OBJECTIONS FROM THE PARDON EXPERTS.

I'LL SEPARATE THE TWO.

HUNTER BIDEN WAS A VIOLATION OF PROMISE NOT TO DO IT AND HE TURNED AROUND --IT ANYWAY.

HUNTER BIDEN HAD COMMITTED CRIMES, PLEADED GUILTY TO TAX AND GUN CRIMES.

>> AS HAVE SOME OF THE PEOPLE PRESIDENT TRUMP PARDONED.

>> 100%.

I WAS GOING TO SAY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED BUT HE DID PARDON HIS DAUGHTER'S FATHER-IN-LAW, CHARLES KUSHNER FOR A CRIME SOME TIME IN THE PAST.

BUT THERE WERE SEPARATE CATEGORIES.

I THINK A MORE SWEEPING SET OF OBJECTIONS BY EXPERTS TO THE HUNTER BIDEN PROBLEM THAN THE PREEMPTIVE PARDONS OF OTHER PEOPLE, POLITICAL ALLIES, ANTHONY FAUCI, IT WAS FAIR TO ASSUME TRUMP MIGHT COME AFTER THESE PEOPLE AND A PARDON WOULD PREVENT THEIR PROSECUTION, AND SOME PEOPLE OBJECTED, SOME EXPERTS SAID IT'S IMPROPER USE OF THE PARDON, SHOULD BE FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN CONVICTED, SHOWN REMORSE, NOT PROACTIVELY.

>> ANY CASE STAND OUT TO YOU?

>> WOMAN WHO GOT TWO CLEMENCY GRANTS FOR TWO CRIMES IS ONE.

OTHERS, PEOPLE HAVE GONE BACK.

THERE'S A GUY, ELIHU WEINSTEIN WHO PERPETRATED A GREAT FRAUD, AFFECTED A LOT OF PEOPLE, WENT TO JAIL, GOT A COMMUTATION FROM TRUMP.

AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER PROSECUTORS ALLEGE HE WAS BACK AT ANOTHER FRAUD USING A DIFFERENT NAME, AND HE'S BACK IN JAIL.

AND SO, THE REOFFENDERS ARE THE ONES THAT I THINK REALLY PUT THIS IN THE STARKEST RELIEF AND SHOW WHY THE SYSTEM AND THE ATTEMPTS --AGAIN, UNCHECKED POWER BY THE PRESIDENT, BUT THERE WAS A SYSTEM THAT WAS SET UP TO TRY TO MAKE IT EASIER AND MORE MERITORIOUS, AND IT'S BEING IGNORED AND WHEN YOU SEE THE REOFFENDERS, IT BRINGS IT HOME.

>> NEEDLESS TO SAY, AS A DILIGENT REPORTER, YOU'VE REACHED OUT TO PEOPLE IN THESE CASES, PRINCIPALS, LAWYERS, SOME DECLINED TO COMMENT, OTHERS SAID THEY DIDN'T BENEFIT FROM THE ADMINISTRATION ACTIONS, SOME HAD NO RESPONSE.

WE HEARD FROM THE ADMINISTRATION, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE PEOPLE INVOLVED IN THE CASES?

>> IN A LOT OF CASES, THEIR ALLIES, SUPPORTERS OR LAWYERS SAYING THIS WAS JUSTIFIED BECAUSE THIS WAS AN OVERSENTENCING.

OR THERE WAS PROSECUTORIAL MISCONDUCT, ALL THE WAYS THAT THE JUSTICE SYSTEM CAN BE UNFAIR.

I DON'T DISMISS ANY OF THOSE, THAT'S PROBABLY RIGHT IN A LOT OF CASES, BUT IT'S ALSO PROBABLY RIGHT IN A HUGE SWATH OF CASES OF PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE MONEY, DON'T HAVE CONNECTION, ARE WAITING IN LINE, FILING PARDON PETITION WITH THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE NORMAL PROCESS AND NEVER HEAR BACK, OR GET REJECTED OUT OF HAND.

IT'S THE DISPARITY IN ABILITY TO ACCESS THIS PRESIDENTIAL PERK FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD THAT I THINK IS NOTABLE AND NOT ALWAYS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WHEN YOU HEAR EXPLANATIONS ABOUT WHY AN INDIVIDUAL DID WARRANT CLEMENCY.

>> KENNETH VOGEL, THANKS FOR TALKING WITH US.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

> >> FINALLY, CELEBRATING HOLLYWOOD'S BRIGHTEST STARS.

PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON'S "ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER" WON BIG, ALSO "SENTIMENTAL VALUE" FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM.

IN AN INTERVIEW LAST MONTH, I ASKED TRIER HOW HE FELT ABOUT IT.

>> AS A KID WATCHING THE ACADEMY AWARDS IN NORWAY, WOULD HAVE FELLINI OR BERGMAN ONCE IN A WHILE BE NOMINATED AND MADE PEOPLE FROM OTHER PLACES IN THE WORLD KIND OF PROUD, THEY'RE TAKING ALL INTO ACCOUNT AND NOT JUST HOLLYWOOD.

NOW THE ACADEMY HAS BROADENED OUT THE MEMBERSHIP, PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD AND REFLECTED IN THE NOMINATIONS.

FILMS EVEN FROM NORWAY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED.

MAKES IT GOOD FOR ALL OF US.

>> AMID THE JUBILATION, ONE OF THE FUN BUT DEADLY SERIOUS FILMS WAS "MR.

NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN," A REGULAR PERSON IN RUSSIA TAKING ON THE PRESIDENT AND HIS WAR IN UKRAINE.

WHEN HE ACCEPTED IT, THE DIRECTOR HAD A MESSAGE SURE TO RESONATE BEYOND RUSSIA.

"MR.

NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN" IS HOW YOU LOSE YOUR COUNTRY.

AND WHAT WE SAW WHEN WORKING WITH THIS FOOTAGE IS THAT YOU LOSE IT THROUGH COUNTLESS SMALL LITTLE ACTS OF COMPLICIT.

WHEN WE ACT COMPLICIT, WHEN A GOVERNMENT MURDERS PEOPLE ON THE STREETS OF OUR MAJOR CITIES, WHEN WE DON'T SAY ANYTHING WHEN OLIGARCHS TAKE OVER THE MEDIA AND CONTROL HOW WE CAN PRODUCE IT AND CONSUME IT.

WE ALL FACE A MORAL CHOICE BUT LUCKILY EVEN A NOBODY IS MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU THINK.

THAT IS A GREAT STATEMENT.

THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP, SIGN UP FOR THE NEWSLETTER.

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